Romania's GDP Declining for 9 Months: -2% in Q2 2026

The National Institute of Statistics (INS) published on Friday, 14 August, the preliminary "flash" data on economic performance in the second quarter of 2026, and the conclusion is concerning: Romania has been in a period of stagnation and economic decline for nine months.

According to these preliminary figures, Gross Domestic Product remained flat in Q2 2026 compared to the first three months of the year. Year-on-year, however, the picture is worse: a fall of 0.4% on the unadjusted series and a considerably steeper decline of 2% on the seasonally adjusted series.

A third consecutive quarter without growth

Quarter-on-quarter analysis confirms this is a trend rather than an isolated episode. Seasonally adjusted data show that the Romanian economy has recorded no quarterly growth for three consecutive periods.

In chronological order, the trajectory has been as follows: growth of 0.9% in Q2 2025, stagnation in Q3 2025, a sharp contraction of 1.9% in Q4 2025, then -0.1% in Q1 2026 and 0% in Q2 2026.

On an annual basis, the gap is widening: whereas in the first quarter of 2026 GDP was 1.1% below the same period in 2025, in the second quarter the negative difference widened to 2% on the seasonally adjusted series.

First half of the year below 2025 levels

This trajectory has produced a negative balance for the whole of H1 2026: GDP fell by 0.8% on the unadjusted series compared to the first six months of 2025, whilst on the seasonally adjusted series the decline stands at 1.6%.

It is worth noting that, on the unadjusted series, the rate of decline eased somewhat in the second quarter (-0.4%, compared with -1.2% in the first quarter); however, the seasonally adjusted series points, on the contrary, to mounting pressure on the economy as the year has progressed.

Revised data: the start of the year was weaker than previously thought

Alongside the incorporation of Q2 figures, INS also carried out its periodic revision of the statistical series, in line with European practice. The result shows that the economy got off to a weaker start in 2026 than initially estimated.

Accordingly, the change in GDP in Q1 2026 relative to end-2025 has been revised from 0.0% to -0.1%, confirming that the downturn began as early as January. Figures for 2025 have also been slightly adjusted: Q1 was revised from -0.3% to -0.4%, whilst Q2 was revised from growth of 0.8% to 0.9%.

What comes next

The data published at this stage are preliminary "flash" estimates. INS is due to release the first provisional GDP estimate for Q2 2026 on 7 September, with a detailed breakdown by economic sector that will shed clearer light on the causes of this performance.