Romania's economy shrank by 0.8% in the first half of 2026, according to INS

The National Institute of Statistics (INS) published data on Friday regarding the performance of the Romanian economy in the second quarter of 2026. According to the figures, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter, but fell by 0.4% (in the gross series) and by 2% (in the seasonally adjusted series) compared to the same period in 2025.

For the first half of the year as a whole, the economy contracted by 0.8% in the gross series and by 1.6% in the seasonally adjusted series, compared to the first six months of 2025.

What an economic analyst says about these figures

Economic analyst Adrian Negrescu told Digi24.ro that the data confirm a slowdown in economic activity, which he describes as a "soft landing", with no sharp decline. He explained that deferred investment, inflation, reduced purchasing power, and financial bottlenecks had led to stagnation, but that large companies had restructured their operations and workforces, which had softened sales-related difficulties.

Negrescu believes Romania should prepare for a lower growth rate — around 1%–1.5% — and for an economic model less reliant on consumption, given low labour productivity and uncertainty in the investment environment. He compared the country's situation to that of its neighbours: Bulgaria has joined the eurozone, Poland has a stable economy with a predictable tax code, and Hungary has attracted major foreign investors. In his view, Romania is "still in a mode of economic survival", and the absence of a government is compounding the delay of major investments.

Looking ahead, the analyst expects an uneven trajectory, with alternating periods of growth and contraction, but believes the most difficult phase of adjustment may already be behind us. He estimates that Romania could emerge from recession by 2027.

The INS also noted that it has recalculated the seasonally adjusted series and revised some earlier data: the GDP change for Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 was revised from stagnation (index 100%) to a decline of 0.1% (index 99.9%). Additionally, the index for Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024 was revised from 99.7% to 99.6%, and that for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 from 100.8% to 100.9%. Data for Q3 and Q4 2025 remained unchanged.