Coffee and citrus fruits could become significantly more expensive due to new EU pesticide regulations

The European Union is considering introducing stricter rules on pesticides used by agricultural producers outside the bloc. The measure could lead to significant price increases for products that many older people consume daily, such as coffee and citrus fruits, according to an analysis by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), as cited by Politico.

How much could coffee and citrus fruit prices rise?

European researchers examined several scenarios, depending on how much producers outside the EU would adapt to the new requirements.

• In the most pessimistic scenario, where farmers in third countries make no changes whatsoever to their production methods, the price of coffee could rise by as much as 332%.
• Citrus fruits could end up costing around 82% more.
• EU agricultural imports could fall, in this extreme scenario, by approximately 41%.

Such a reduction in imports could also affect livestock farmers, through higher feed costs.

The analysis also considered more moderate scenarios, in which producers outside the EU partially adapt to the new rules. Even under these conditions, researchers estimate price increases and import reductions, albeit of a lesser magnitude. Farmers within the EU could, in turn, stand to benefit, as they would face less competition from products produced under different pesticide regulations.

Why is Brussels proposing these rules?

The proposal forms part of a broader package of measures concerning food and feed safety. The European Commission's objective is to prevent active substances deemed hazardous and already banned within the EU from entering the European market through imported products.

The measure is supported by many European farmers, who are calling for a "level playing field" with agricultural producers from outside the EU. The issue is all the more sensitive given that discussions are simultaneously taking place around the trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay).

Reactions from producers outside the EU

The European plans have drawn criticism from agricultural exporters outside the bloc. They argue that applying the same standards could, in practice, amount to a trade barrier, and raise questions about compatibility with World Trade Organisation rules.

Fruit producers from Morocco and South Africa, the grains and pulses industry in Canada, watermelon exporters from Honduras, and agricultural organisations in Brazil have all publicly expressed concern, arguing that farming methods vary from region to region depending on climate and the pests specific to each area.

Australia, Canada, Paraguay, and the United States have already raised formal objections within the World Trade Organisation. Representatives of the international fresh produce industry contend that existing food safety standards already protect consumers, without the need for additional regulations.

The European Commission's position

The European Commission states that it is not seeking to restrict international trade, but rather to prevent substances banned within the EU from re-entering the European food chain through imports. To this end, reducing the permitted limits for certain pesticide residues to near zero is being considered.

European authorities and international organisations nonetheless acknowledge that current limits are set in such a way that products can be consumed safely. The dispute centres more on the question of whether the EU should impose additional standards on environmental or agricultural policy grounds.

18 substances, 235 products, 86 countries

The final list of substances targeted has yet to be determined. The JRC analysis identifies 18 active substances that could fall under the new rules, with a potential impact on approximately 235 agricultural products sourced from 86 countries.

The European Commission is due to assess each substance individually, examining the impact on production, trade, and food security. There is, as yet, no certainty that all the substances included in the analysis will actually be banned in the manner set out in the study's scenarios.

For consumers, the stakes remain tangible: any potential reduction in imports and rise in production costs could be directly reflected in the price of everyday foodstuffs, including coffee and citrus fruits.