BNR decides today on the key interest rate level. Analysts forecast it will be kept at 6.5%

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has an important meeting scheduled for Thursday, 12 November, with significant implications for both the national economy and Romanians with bank loans. The institution's Board of Directors is set to determine whether the key interest rate will remain at its current level of 6.5% per annum or undergo changes.

According to information from Realitatea PLUS, financial analysts expect the BNR to keep the interest rate unchanged, against a backdrop of continuously rising inflation and persistent economic uncertainties. The new quarterly Inflation Report is also due to be approved at the same meeting.

What will happen to the key interest rate and when it could fall

The Board of Directors will assess the state of the economy and decide on the monetary policy interest rate for the period ahead. The BNR's key interest rate is currently set at 6.5% per annum, and specialists do not anticipate a reduction at Thursday's meeting.

The main reasons cited for maintaining the interest rate are rising inflation and general economic instability. According to market estimates, any potential reduction in the key interest rate is unlikely to occur before 2027.

BNR warns of rising inflation through to the end of the year

Also on Thursday, the National Bank is due to approve its quarterly inflation report, a document that will clarify price trends for the coming months. Analysts expect an upward revision to the forecast for end-2026, after the BNR already warned that inflation will exceed previous estimates.

The new figures are being closely watched, as Romanians continue to feel the effects of rising prices and the economic outlook remains uncertain. Among the factors driving inflation are movements in the euro exchange rate, rising energy and fuel costs, as well as the broader international economic context. All of these factors are placing additional pressure on prices and reducing the chances of a swift return to lower inflation levels.