Petrol approaches 10 RON per litre. What analysts say about future prices

Fuel prices remain high in Romania, as Brent crude oil surpassed the $97 per barrel threshold on Monday, reaching its highest level in the past six weeks.

What we pay at the pump

In Bucharest, standard petrol is selling at 9.73 RON/litre, whilst standard diesel has reached 10.19 RON/litre. The national average price of LPG stands at 4.65 RON/litre, according to data published by the platform Peco-online.ro.

At some stations in Timișoara, prices are slightly lower: standard petrol costs approximately 9.70 RON/litre, whilst standard diesel sells at 10.15 RON/litre. The difference between the two cities amounts to just a few pennies, yet the overall price level remains high against the backdrop of rising international oil prices.

Why oil prices have risen

The surge in Brent crude to over $97 per barrel comes just days after the United States and Iran carried out reciprocal attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. This route is critical to global oil transportation, and the tensions have placed additional pressure on the market.

Oil and fuel prices have risen steadily since the outbreak of the conflict with Iran at the end of February, due to disruptions to shipping through the strait.

How far prices could climb

Investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that a barrel of oil could reach as high as $120, should tensions and supply disruptions persist.

Since the start of the conflict with Iran, Brent crude has risen by more than 33%, whilst West Texas Intermediate has recorded an increase of just over 37%. A continuation of this trend could keep upward pressure on fuel prices in the period ahead.

The impact of the war in Ukraine

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is adding further pressure to the energy market, after several attacks put Russian oil refineries out of action. The reduction in refining capacity limits the amount of crude oil that can be converted into petrol and diesel, and this, combined with tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is contributing to sustained high prices on the international oil market.