Energy bills could rise. Expert: three scenarios, the most likely brings a 3-5% increase

Electricity tariffs for household consumers could become more expensive amid additional costs that have emerged over the past two months, energy expert Dumitru Chisăliță, president of the Asociația Energia Inteligentă, told Digi24.

According to him, additional costs are typically recovered by suppliers from their customers, meaning that from August 2026, when new offers come into effect, some suppliers may propose higher prices than those currently available.

Three possible scenarios

Asociația Energia Inteligentă has analysed three scenarios, depending on how the current energy crisis unfolds:

• The optimistic scenario (considered the most likely at this point): the situation is resolved relatively easily, and tariffs could be 3–5% higher than Romania's current average price.
• The intermediate scenario: the energy crisis worsens, leading to large imports that suppliers initially cover and subsequently recoup from consumers. This scenario is less likely than the optimistic one, but cannot be ruled out.
• The pessimistic scenario (the least likely): this involves a severe crisis, very costly imports, and significant price increases over the next three weeks, compounded by issues relating to storage and the functioning of certain producers within Romania's energy mix.

"We are closer to scenario number one, the optimistic scenario, in which tariffs would be 3–5% higher than current prices," Dumitru Chisăliță stated.

The expert cautioned that a potential 3–5% increase does not automatically mean that all consumers will pay more, since the differences between suppliers' offers are already considerable, and switching supplier could offset any potential price rise.

According to market data cited in the report, to date only around 5% of consumers have changed their energy supplier, despite announcements of possible price increases.