Pensions 2027: growth scenario of 2.9%, below the inflation rate

The Government is facing a dilemma regarding pension increases for next year, with state institutions holding differing positions. The Ministry of Finance argues that the country can no longer afford spending increases due to the ever-growing public debt, whilst the Fiscal Council considers that pensions should nonetheless be raised, even if the percentage increase will be lower than the inflation rate.

One of the scenarios under discussion is a pension indexation of 2.9%.

Why there is no longer money for increases

Romania's public debt currently stands at 60.01% of GDP. Projections indicate this figure will rise to 63.3% of GDP in 2027 and 63.9% of GDP in 2028.

As long as public debt remains above certain thresholds, the Fiscal and Budgetary Responsibility Law does not permit the Government to approve measures that lead to an increase in total personnel expenditure or total social assistance expenditure, a category that includes pensions.

What a 2.9% indexation would look like

The scenario under analysis involves a pension indexation of 2.9%, a figure close to the estimated inflation rate for next year. In concrete terms, depending on the pension amount, increases would be as follows:

• Pension of 1,500 RON: increase of 43.50 RON, final pension of 1,543.50 RON
• Pension of 2,000 RON: increase of 58 RON, final pension of 2,058 RON
• Pension of 3,500 RON: increase of 101 RON, final pension of 3,601 RON
• Pension of 4,000 RON: increase of 116 RON, final pension of 4,116 RON