Fiscal Council warns: public debt could rise to 70%, pensions risk remaining frozen

A report by the Fiscal Council raises serious concerns about the future of pensions in Romania. According to specialists, the growth of public debt could lead to pension levels being frozen for several years to come, whilst any increase in the following year remains uncertain.

Data from the Ministry of Finance and the Fiscal Council show the following trajectory of public debt as a proportion of GDP:

• Current level: 60.01% of GDP
• 2027 estimate: 63.3% of GDP
• 2028 estimate: 63.9% of GDP
• 2030 estimate: approximately 70% of GDP

According to the Fiscal Council, one of the major structural risks — with both immediate and long-term effects — is demographic change. As the generation born during the communist-era birth policy reaches retirement age, the costs associated with an ageing population will place additional pressure on public spending.

The institution notes that, based on these projections, pension expenditure in Romania is expected to rise through to 2030. Experts also warn that the retirement age could be raised as a solution to address the budgetary deficit generated by these pressures.