Pensions 2027: 7%, 5% or 3.4% indexation? The scenarios under discussion

Designated Prime Minister Siegfried Mureșan has stated that the pension increase planned for 2027 depends on the country's fiscal and budgetary situation, and that the exact percentage has not yet been determined. The governance programme provides for pension indexation in 2027, but without specifying a concrete figure.

According to the document, indexation is to be based on the inflation rate, but within the limits permitted by the fiscal and budgetary trajectory. In practice, the incoming government will first need to assess budgetary indicators before deciding on the final increase. Mureșan clarified that the specific percentage will not be known until the end of the year.

Three calculation scenarios

Several indexation options are currently being considered:

• The 7.3% scenario (inflation rate): the reference point value would rise to 86 RON. A pension of 2,025 RON would increase to 2,154 RON.
• The 5% scenario: the same pension of 2,025 RON would rise to 2,126 RON. Government sources suggest the final indexation figure could be below 7%.
• The 3.4% scenario, based on the inflation forecast by the BNR for the fourth quarter of next year: a pension of 2,025 RON would rise to 2,093 RON.

The difference between the three options ultimately depends on the percentage the government will be able to sustain from a budgetary standpoint. Siegfried Mureșan has reaffirmed that a definitive answer will be given at the end of the year.

Possible changes to early retirement

The governance programme also addresses the situation of those who retire earlier than the standard age. The document proposes eliminating early retirement in systems where it currently exists and discouraging the practice more broadly. This could result in a higher retirement age for the categories concerned. The measure does not apply to all pensioners, but only to those schemes in which people leave the workforce earlier than the standard retirement age.